I believe that Platform as a Service (PAAS) will be the end result of the Cloud Revolution. One or more of the PAASs will be the new cloud operating system. You can build systems with Amazon or another Infrastructure as a Service (IAAS) but that is like assembling your computer from chips and writing your own operating system.
The reason I am so depressed is that I think that the most likely winner will be Hadoop. Hadoop is written mainly in Java. Java is the result of design by committee like COBOL and ADA. The answer to any API problem is to add more API's.
The only hope for any elegance in programming is if a better scripting language is overlaid on it like Jruby or Jython. I also think that Google AppEngine will remain a viable competitor but I don't think that Google will push it enough for it to win.
The new Windows will not be Linux. It will be Hadoop over Linux over the EC2 API. Hadoop will probably be more reliable than Windows. Thinking about Java surviving is just sad.